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The Yemeni state fell on September 21, 2014, when the leaders of the parties signed in the presence of the head of state, smiling at what he said was (a historic achievement) and the UN envoy at the time, Mr. Jamal Benomar, after the Ansar Allah group – the Houthis (this is the name approved by all the forces participating in the dialogue meetings in Movenpick) took control of the capital.

What happened after that was a continuation of the natural course of the disintegration of institutions, which began in 2012 by unleashing the parties to attack the body of the state structure with random appointments based on partisan quotas in ministries and interests away from the rules, laws and regulations of the civil service, and the worst was that the parties chose incompetent and incapable elements in governments that preceded and followed the events of September 2014.

Political lightness prevailed in the public scene, and the role of the President of the Republic was completely absent from controlling the tracks during a transitional period that required full vigilance and continuous consultation with everyone, which led to a complete imbalance in the activities of the state and lost the ability to accomplish what was required. The loot and the luster to dismantle them.

What happened after September 21, 2014, starting with the escape of the Presidential Adviser for Military Affairs, Lieutenant-General (at the time) Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, to the arrest of the president, the prime minister, and a number of ministers in the last week of January 2015, was the signal to enter the stage of completing the destruction of the Yemeni state project, which The young people who took to the streets in early 2011 wished, then their dreams were shattered on the rock of partisan greed and a number of them fell into the trap of searching for office and sliding towards the process of polarization practiced by the parties that put their interests ahead of the national interest and practiced unprecedented vain in using public office as a backward, sterile and cheap way to satisfy their members At the expense of the rules and laws.

Between January 21, 2015 (the president was placed under house arrest) and March 26, 2015 (the start of the Saudi-led air campaign – Decisive Storm), the Ansar Allah group pushed its militia south towards Taiz and Aden, and rushed to establish commercial relations (which did not produce anything tangible) with Iran And it announced an illogical number of commercial flights between the two countries, and these statements were exciting and provoking regional concern, but the reality is that not all diplomatic means were exhausted to address or deal with them before resorting to excessive force to resolve the problem, which Riyadh considered a source of imminent danger to it.

From the first day, my conviction, which I declared and spoke about in public and in closed councils, was that the war could not lead to closing the file, but rather that it would inevitably, given my knowledge of reality and history, lead everyone to a humanitarian catastrophe that the Yemeni citizen would bear. In this regard, I remember that I said at the end of 2015 (during my orphan participation in the forum held by the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi) that reports were talking that citizens had more than 60 million weapons in their hands, then I expected that by the end of the war their number would exceed 200 to 300 A million weapons are in the hands of young people and children who will not find work or hope after the end of the war, which makes them a source and fertile ground for terrorist groups, gangs, and unruly armed organizations.

What is happening since March 26, 2015 is that the country has been constantly divided into geographical sectors whose areas are shrinking because they are fragmented from within into smaller areas, and in the absence of the state, military formations have arisen far from the structures of the regular armed forces and security forces, and they have become weak to the point of emaciation.

Today, it can be said that the country has 4 major powers, whose influence is distributed according to their presence on the ground, and they all have external links whose influence on the internal forces varies.

There is the internationally recognized government, the Ansar Allah group, the Transitional Council, and finally the Guardians of the Republic.

The reality indicates that the weakest of these components on the ground is the government for many reasons, most notably its weak composition, the multiplicity of decision centers within it, the corruption of many of its elements, and the incompetence of most of its senior officials due to the partisan distribution of positions that does not give anyone the right to object to any choice.. In addition, popular confidence It is non-existent and citizens do not see any ability to perform and achieve other than securing the conditions of its members. In fact, it does not live and does not continue except by regional desire only.. Also, members of the government represent contradictory political orientations, and even conflicting over influence within different geographical areas, which makes them a distorted hybrid that does not He can produce any positive patriotic action.

The second element is the Ansar Allah group, which does not hide its strong relations with Iran, as it is the only country that explicitly declares its support and support for them, and there is no doubt that it provided technical and logistical assistance and advanced training for military, security and media elements.. But the geographical distance and the difficulty of direct communication on an ongoing basis makes the Iranian influence on The group’s decision in internal affairs is weak compared to what the government is exposed to.. Also, Tehran is not able to provide the group with sufficient funds necessary for its activities, which makes the group engage in coercive and illegal operations to obtain its needs for the conduct of its military activities, and forcibly seizes large resources from the inside without oversight or accountability.

This does not mean that Tehran is far from the scene, but rather it is in its depth and has gained much more influence and influence than any aid it provided to the Houthis over the past years. This is due to the weakness or lack of coordination and trust between the president and his successive governments with the coalition, especially Riyadh.

The remaining two entities are the Guardians of the Republic (it came to call itself the National Resistance and sometimes the Joint Forces) and the Southern Transitional Council was established under the auspices of the United Arab Emirates and with explicit funding from it. its lands.

This quadripartite scene must be added to the entity that lurks around everyone: the jihadi organizations that find in the ongoing war a fertile breeding ground for their elements to expand, indulge and recruit.. It is an issue that threatens everyone, the region, and perhaps later the world.

What is the solution?

I don’t know, the lines became intertwined, and Yemen became just a free playground open to forces that represent Yemen and its people with nothing but space to settle their differences or, at best, a struggle for influence in it. But it is certain that no one cares about the matter of its citizens, their hunger, their poverty, or their killing.



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